Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the ...

Monte Carlo Analysis for Investment Risk Assessment

Discover how Monte Carlo analysis helps investors assess risk and make informed decisions. Explore its role in generating ...
Nature

Probability models for DNA sequence evolution

This small book has five chapters, the first four of which cover theoretical population genetics. Chapter 1 is on the basic models. After a barebone introduction to genetics terminology, the author ...
Seeking Alpha

Credit Spreads And Default Probabilities: A Simple Model Validation Example

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...
Risk

Quantification of model risk with an application to probability of default estimation and stress testing for a large corporate portfolio

This paper addresses the building of obligor-level hazard rate corporate probability of default models for stress testing, departing from the predominant practice in wholesale credit modeling of ...